浅析宏观调控下地产金融的新渠道

纷至沓来的地产融资的新渠道,犹如一场变革前奏,正在激荡着国内地产金融模式的发展之路。在宏观调控下,银行贷款和上市融资这两种主要融资渠道的受制,房企如何解决资金链的问题,未雨绸缪积极开拓多种融资方式、保持领先的市场竞争力,成为房企亟待解决的问题,同时也是金融学术界研究的焦点。本文首先从地产金融的历史沿革展开,通过分析宏观调控政策下地产金融的现状入手,进一步探讨宏观调控对地产融资渠道的影响,最后研究和解决房企目前存在的融资难题,开拓多元化的融资新渠道。     

中国农村金融市场成长机制及模式研究

本文在分析了原有农村金融市场成长机制的现状,结合中国农村金融发展实际的基础,总结出了中国农村金融市场成长存在的问题及这些问题产生的根源,对中国农村金融市场成长的影响进行了分析,并提出了对于农村金融市场发展成长的具体政策措施。     

农村土地流转的问题及对策

加快农村土地流转,是建设现代化农业的客观要求和推进城乡统筹发展的关键。当前我国农村土地流转中存在土地用途改变、有效需求不足、流转期过长等问题,解决的办法就是要依法依规办事、积极开拓市场及加大金融扶持等,以确保农村土地流转的健康发展。     

EXTREME VALUE AT RISK: A SCENARIO FOR RISK MANAGEMENT

This paper uses the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution to model the extreme losses that are likely to occur during market crashes, in the case of an investor who has long positions in stocks and currencies. The null hypothesis – which tests for normality of asset returns – is rejected due to asymmetry of these returns. We assume that the asymmetric behaviour and volatility of the returns are captured by the shape and scale parameters, respectively, of a GEV distribution. The data set includes stock indices for the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, France and South Africa, and the South African rand exchange rates against the US dollar observed from 3 January 2005 to 30 December 2009. In addition, we divide this sample period into two periods: the pre‐crisis period, from 3 January 2005 to 31 December 2007 and the crisis period, from 1 January 2008 to 30 December 2009. We compared the estimates of value at risk (VaR) using an extreme value theory (EVT) model, with the estimates derived from the traditional variance–covariance method and found that during the crisis the 99% extreme VaR estimates are more reliable as they lie within the Basel II green zone. These results suggest that, at higher quintiles, the VaR estimates based on EVT are reliable and more accurate than estimates from the traditional method.     

MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND CONDITIONAL STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY IN SOUTH AFRICA*

This paper analyses how systematic risk emanating from the macroeconomy is transmitted into stock market volatility using augmented autoregressive Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (AR‐GARCH) and vector autoregression (VAR) models. Also examined is whether the relationship between the two is bidirectional. By imposing dummies for the 1997‐1998 Asian and the 2007‐2009 sub‐prime financial crises, the study further analyses whether financial crises affect the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and stock market volatility. The findings show that macroeconomic uncertainty significantly influences stock market volatility. Although volatilities in inflation, the gold price and the oil price seem to play a role, it is found that volatility in short‐term interest rates and exchange rates are the most important, suggesting that South African domestic financial markets are increasingly becoming interdependent. Finally, the results show that financial crises increase volatility in the stock market and in most macroeconomic variables, and, by so doing, strengthen the effects of changes in macroeconomic variables on the stock market.     

后金融危机时期江苏出口贸易对产业升级的影响与对策

世界经济逐步走出金融危机,但是金融危机并没有完全消除,发展缓慢困扰后金融危机时期的各国经济。文章从贸易需求和产品结构角度分析出口贸易对江苏产业升级的影响,提出了优化产业结构、积极发展服务业、配套产业、扶持民营企业和大力发展绿色产业等产业升级对策。     

京津风沙源退耕还林后续产业发展的金融支持对策——以河北省张家口市为例

京津风沙源金融支持后续产业发展存在理念执行阻滞、项目支持力度不够、涉农金融机构扶持力度不大、金融组织体系不完善、创新金融产品种类不多、评级授信客户少和金融环境有待改善等问题。而后续产业企业的自身缺陷、金融、政策及法律制度等因素又是制约金融支持后续产业的主要因素。文章认为,后续产业应向深层次、多样化发展壮大,加快农村金融改革,优化后续产业政策环境并加大支持力度,健全担保体系和建立金融存款保险制度。     

京津冀都市圈区域金融合作发展的研究

在区域经济合作中,金融合作是基础也是核心,是实现区域经济共同发展的重要支撑力量。本文立足于京津冀三地经济及金融的现实发展状况,分析京津冀金融合作的制约因素,提出金融合作发展的对策。     

我国水利技术成果转化理论框架和体系构建研究

在对水利技术成果转化的概念及特点进行分析的基础上,介绍了西方国家水利成果转化体系的基本类型,从政策层面和操作层面2个方面提出了优化我国水利技术成果转化体系的建议：首先,从水利技术成果转化的政策层面出发,分析了社会资本以及财政投入对于成果转化体系的影响,提出在我国的现实条件下,社会资本与财政投入的双向并行是保障水利技术顺利转化和水利行业健康发展的前提;其次,从操作层面提出了提高水利技术成果转化效率的方式,即加强市场化中介组织在成果转化中的作用,并通过产学研一体化等方式来提高技术成果的转化效率。     

航电枢纽工程财务增效机制研究

航电枢纽工程大多面临投资大、运行费用高、发电产出少、财务效益差等问题。为促进其可持续发展,真正实现以电养航,在对航电工程财务因子敏感性分析的基础上,依托嘉陵江流域典型枢纽,深入研究其财务增效机制。研究表明,争取电价补贴和调整资本金结构并举是改善航电枢纽运营环境,增强企业经营活力的有效、可行措施。